NLDS: Cubs vs. Brewers — rivalry reignited

Postseason Stage

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs for Game 1 of the National League Division Series, rekindling a rivalry that intensified down the stretch, ESPN reported. The matchup represents the first postseason meeting between these National League Central division rivals since 2008, when the Cubs swept Milwaukee in the NLDS before ultimately falling to the Dodgers.

Milwaukee clinched home-field advantage on the final weekend, adding urgency to the opener. The Brewers finished 91-71, three games ahead of Chicago in the division race, earning the right to host Games 1, 2, and potentially 5 at American Family Field. The advantage proves significant given Milwaukee's 49-32 home record compared to their 42-39 road mark.

Chicago secured the wild card with an 88-74 record, surviving a tense final week that saw four teams competing for the final two playoff spots. The Cubs won eight of their last ten games, including a crucial four-game sweep of Cincinnati that eliminated the Reds from contention. Manager Craig Counsell, who managed Milwaukee for nine seasons before joining Chicago, adds a compelling narrative subplot to the series.

The rivalry carries deep historical roots dating to the Cubs' decades of dominance over Milwaukee when both franchises competed in the National League. The Brewers' move to the American League in 1998 temporarily cooled tensions, but their 1998 return to the NL and subsequent division placement with Chicago reignited competitive fire. Regular season series between the clubs consistently draw passionate crowds and intense media attention throughout the Midwest.

American Family Field's retractable roof will likely remain closed for Game 1 given forecasted rain and temperatures in the low 50s. The enclosed environment amplifies crowd noise and creates a distinct home-field advantage that visiting players often cite as challenging. Milwaukee's notorious bullpen entrance routine, where relievers emerge from center field to AC/DC's "Hells Bells," generates ear-splitting decibel levels that unsettle opposing hitters.

Pitching Matchup

ESPN projects Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to face Cubs right-hander Justin Steele, a duel built on strikeout-heavy repertoires. Burnes, 30, posted a 13-7 record with a 2.87 ERA and 228 strikeouts across 201 innings, finishing as a Cy Young Award finalist for the third time in four years. His signature cutter generates a remarkable 42% whiff rate, making him nearly unhittable when commanding the pitch low in the zone.

Both clubs lean on aggressive bullpen usage, meaning mid-inning chess moves could arrive early. Brewers manager Pat Murphy has shortened his rotation to three starters for the playoffs, planning to deploy relievers earlier than traditional playoff strategy suggests. The bullpen features dominant closer Devin Williams (1.58 ERA, 37 saves) and setup man Joel Payamps (2.34 ERA), giving Milwaukee multiple high-leverage weapons.

Steele, 29, emerged as Chicago's most consistent starter with a 16-5 record and 3.06 ERA, striking out 187 batters in 194 innings. His four-seam fastball velocity increased two mph from last season, sitting comfortably at 94-96 mph with late ride that generates swings and misses up in the zone. Steele's slider development transformed him from mid-rotation starter to ace-caliber pitcher, with the pitch producing a 38% chase rate on offerings outside the strike zone.

The Cubs' bullpen leans heavily on closer Adbert Alzolay (28 saves, 2.45 ERA) and setup man Julian Merryweather, but depth questions emerged after setup man Keegan Thompson hit the injured list in late September. Counsell confirmed that Thompson won't be available for at least the first two games, forcing Chicago to rely on less experienced arms in crucial situations.

"Corbin brings championship experience and ice in his veins," Murphy told reporters during Tuesday's workout. "He's pitched in must-win games his entire career. That experience matters when every pitch feels magnified."

Counsell acknowledged the challenge of facing his former team: "Milwaukee has elite pitching top to bottom. We need quality at-bats, make them throw strikes, and capitalize when mistakes enter our hitting zone. Patience will be tested, but that's playoff baseball."

Lineup Storylines

Chicago needs production from its left-handed hitters to counter Milwaukee's righty-heavy staff. First baseman Cody Bellinger and outfielder Ian Happ represent the Cubs' primary left-handed threats, combining for 51 home runs and 175 RBIs this season. Bellinger's resurgence after several down years provides Chicago with a former MVP capable of carrying the offense during playoff runs.

The Brewers look to capitalize on speed, with their top-of-lineup base stealers testing Chicago's catchers. Center fielder Christian Yelich (31 stolen bases) and second baseman Brice Turang (38 steals) create constant pressure on opposing defenses with their baserunning aggression. Milwaukee led the National League with 189 stolen bases, forcing pitchers to divide attention between batters and baserunners—creating opportunities for mistakes.

Milwaukee's offensive identity centers around manufacturing runs through contact hitting and situational baseball rather than home run power. The Brewers ranked just 14th in the NL in home runs but second in batting average with runners in scoring position (.281), reflecting their emphasis on productive at-bats in crucial situations. Shortstop Willy Adames provides occasional power with 28 home runs while driving in 98 runs from the cleanup spot.

Chicago's lineup construction emphasizes patience and power, drawing the fourth-most walks in baseball while hitting 214 home runs. Designated hitter Christopher Morel emerged as a dangerous middle-of-the-order threat with 32 home runs and a .340 on-base percentage, giving the Cubs protection around Bellinger. Third baseman Isaac Paredes, acquired midseason from Tampa Bay, adds postseason experience and clutch hitting to Chicago's lineup depth.

Defensive alignments will be scrutinized closely. Milwaukee deploys extreme shifts against Cubs left-handed pull hitters, banking on analytics suggesting these alignments reduce batting averages by 20-30 points. Chicago counters with batters practicing opposite-field hitting approaches, attempting to exploit vacated areas of the infield. The chess match between hitting philosophy and defensive positioning could determine multiple at-bats throughout the series.

Series Stakes

Analysts told ESPN the winner gains momentum against the Dodgers-Phillies victor, raising the stakes for Game 1. The NLCS opponent looms large in both clubhouses, with players and coaches well aware that surviving this series means facing either Los Angeles' star power or Philadelphia's experienced playoff roster. The Dodgers-Phillies series features higher-profile players, but this Cubs-Brewers matchup may prove equally competitive given divisional familiarity.

Historic context adds intrigue: the teams split the regular-season series, setting expectations for another tight battle. Milwaukee won eight of thirteen regular season meetings, but six games were decided by two runs or fewer. The Cubs won the final series in late September at Wrigley Field, potentially providing confidence heading into this winner-take-all format.

Home-field advantage statistics in Division Series heavily favor the hosting team, with Game 1 winners advancing 72% of the time historically. The pressure intensifies for Chicago knowing that dropping the opener forces them to win at least one game in Milwaukee—a challenging proposition given the Brewers' home dominance and raucous atmosphere.

Individual milestone pursuits add subplot interest. Yelich seeks to recapture MVP form from earlier in his career, when he won the 2018 National League MVP award. A strong playoff performance would validate his continued elite status despite recent injury-plagued seasons. Bellinger similarly aims to prove his 2023 resurgence represents sustainable excellence rather than anomaly.

Both organizations view this season as potential championship windows given their young core players entering prime years. Milwaukee's window may be narrowing with Burnes approaching free agency and the small-market Brewers facing financial constraints retaining stars. Chicago's new ownership group has signaled willingness to spend aggressively on roster improvement, viewing playoff success as essential for building momentum toward championship contention.

Beyond immediate series implications, organizational reputation matters significantly. Milwaukee seeks to establish itself as a perennial contender rather than occasional playoff participant. The Cubs aim to prove their 2016 World Series title wasn't a fleeting moment but rather foundation for sustained excellence. Victory validates front office strategies, coaching philosophies, and player development systems—intangible benefits extending well beyond this playoff series.